Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Multiplex multiplier

As I went through Rediffs box office standings, a thought came to my head.

If there is a hit movie running, for which tickets are not available or demand is greater than supply, does some of the demand spillover in favour of the other duds on view? My guess is that it does and if there is a hit movie running, some of the demand does go over to the other screens in the multiplex. So, does it pay to have a movie with high collections running in your multiplex, even if it is for just a couple of shows? The basis of it is my behaviour and the running conversations that happen while standing in the ticket queue.

This is an analysis that is doable and if true, so then producers can decide when to release a movie - it may be wise to get movies to get released on the same day rather than stagger it?

6 comments:

Aadisht said...

Neelakantan,

wouldn't this depend on the behavioural profile of the audience? The spillover effect wouldn't happen if I was a devoted fan who had come for one particular movie. But if I had come just for timepass, the spillover effect would work.

Neelakantan said...

Oh yes, if you came for a Telugu movie and you did not get tickets, you would go back or for that matter to see a particular hit. But if you came for timepass or even without a clear choice - like a set of friends who go to see one movie, but since they did not get tickets for that one movie, they decide to see another one - a second choice, it could work.

There is scope of having a few good movies playing which will work as "second choice" - multiplexes can think of re run of slightly older movies etc.

Aadisht said...

This makes me think of Subhiksha v/s Food bazaar. Subhiksha has a very limited choice of brands, so a stockout in say, cornflakes means the entire category is stocked out. In Big Bazaar only one brand will be stocked out and so inferior brands get a free ride- mostly due to Food Bazaar's poor inventory management.

The interesting thing is that if retail chains do market basket data mining, such stockout situations will distort their results.

Abhay S said...

But aren't you missing the "steal" effect.
Suppose there is no good movie running on the next screen, then our dud movie would get say X out of 100 ppl. visiting the cinema. With a good movie running, there will be 200 visiting the halls (100 fill the good movie) and probably Y will spillover.

X and Y are only arbitrary numbers. We have to figure out a way to determine which will be higher. If Y is higher, yes you are right but I guess of the extra people coming are specific to that movie.

Will steal effect be greater?

Anonymous said...

Most multiplexes very quickly adjust the number of shows to match demand. This happens within a span of 2 or 3 days. So if there is a hit movie, the multiplex will screen more shows of it and/or raise the price. It is just basic business sense.

Neelakantan said...

Good points! Thanks!