Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Are you bored?

I am bored out of my brains of the post 26/11 coverage by the media. Yes, our ministers met a lot of countries, governments, diplomats, streetlights, furniture trying to showcase the "proof" we accumulated. What have we got? Nothing. Zero. Zilch. If this was an exam we were a failure even before the time ran out. As of today we are in a completely hopeless state, waiting for the next attack. (Read this by Brahma Chellaney: DNA). The two bomb blasts at Guwahati were airbrushed for all practical purposes.

First, we ruled out any chance of us attacking Pakistan, then we ruled out any chance of even cross border operations, now we have ruled out surgical strikes. Some ministers have made grand pronouncements of "how we cannot do a Gaza on Pakistan" . If there is anyone who can do a Gaza, it is Pakistan, on India - please Mr. Minister, don't kid yourselves and us. And as of now, Pakistan has not yet ruled out an attack on India.

Now, coincidentally, having a read a bit of contemporary history, that thought reinforces itself. Pakistan has checked Indias ability over 2 scenarios - including two governments - and delightfully found the same result.

Case 1: Pakistan begins a limited scale war (how can any war be limited - this is a case study in foolishness). Kargil (by VP Malik) was the first book I read. In Kargil Pakistan mounted an audacious attack on some of our border peaks and we, the great Indians showed great restraint in crossing the border while the enemy was a few kilometres into our space with concrete bunkers and what not. And we did not cross the border, nor expand the war, nor take the war back to the enemy. We spent months looking for "conclusive proof" that the attackers were indeed Pakistani or aliens (ostensibly). And having confirmed our suspicions we wasted time, money and a lot of our soldiers lives trying to take out the terrorists + army who were lodged in our peaks.

Case 2: A Fidayeen attack a la Parliament attack (Read India, Pakistan and the secret Jihad (Praveen Swami)). India did not respond then, in 2001 and will not respond now in 2008 (and will not respond for the next attack). Then, as now, we did some major speeches, diplomats earned frequent flyer miles and then nothing happened. Nothing happened. The two are so eerily similar, you would believe it is a rerun.

That leaves us with this: If India did not nuke Pakistan for Kargil, why would Pakistan nuke India if we did something similar? If that reasoning is wrong as it has been drummed into our heads, we are not safe at all. If Pakistan organizes a terror attack on our territory, we wont do anything. They launch wars, or limited incursions, we still wont do anything. But if we do anything, they will nuke us, or the reasoning goes. Clearly, they are not worried about our nukes, but we are.

Therefore, the only thing India can do is one big thumping first strike on Pakistan, for no reason at all except for the fact that they exist. Because, at the end of all of this I am convinced that even if Pakistan nukes India, we will show restraint through whatever half life and irradiated brains we have left of us.

Given that the thumping first strike is an idiot bloggers fantasy - that leaves us with only the option of death by probability. And can someone please upgrade the police weapons, police stations, networks and equipment while we wait?

And with that I promise to stop writing on the outcome of the 26/11 terror massacre until the Predators eliminate some on the Terror top 20.

4 comments:

Ajith said...

completely agree.... we have become a nation, which is not able to take bold decisions. Our ministers can say proudly that they have averted a war, but at what cost! I have no doubt that the terror attacks will continue and common man is preparing himself to die in a variety of ways innovated by Terror minds.

Abhijat said...

Hi

This is my first response to your blog, albeit i am a frequent visitor.

i usually find your blog interesting but off late am not sure that i can agree to your stance on starting a war with Pakistan. For a more saner and realistic view see this from Tunku Varadarajan.

http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2009/01/04/israel-hamas-india-oped-cx_tv_0105varadarajan.html

Wars have fundamentally uncertain outcomes. We simply do not have an overwelhming military superiority.

Also the nuke issue is like a liar's poker. You never know if
the other person is bluffing till actually the cards are out - and i am a little skeptical towards the fanatic as he does not think rationally. So your imputing logic and rationality to the fanatic is fundamentally wrong. The fanatic is more than willing to die for his cause than a rational man is is.

Which is precisely what gives the fanatic the power. The suicide bomber has power on us as he values his own life so little. Substitute the suicide bomber mentality in the upper eschelons of the pak military establishment and you can never hope to win until you are willing to be nuked yourself.

So basically it is a stalemate and will continue to be one.

Neelakantan said...

Fair point Abhijat. I am not advocating war for wars sake. I want to see my nation do something - whether it is war, whether it is something else, but get rid of this menace. We have suffered numerous attacks - and what has been our response over these many years? Nothing. That frustrates me no end...There are numerous non war options - Baglihar, stopping trade, revoking MFN but no, we dont do anything. I wish we responded so that Pak would stop playing dirty with us...

BharGo said...

I disagree with Abhijat that we do not have military superiority... Pakistan knows that in conventional war they cannot defeat India and hence resorts to "other ways of bleeding India"... The only reason Pakistan can get away with murder is the Nuke factor!

The govt should work on a long term plan with US to denuclearise Pakistan through a "special mechanism"... overt and covert!