Wednesday, June 23, 2010

The electric car is closer than you think

Picture this: Nissan Leaf, the worlds first mass produced electric car gets a raving review. Oil prices go up up and up. Whats the end result?

There are currently two types of people in the world (to paraphrase Amitabhs dialog in Hum) - those who believe that electric vehicles are the future and those who believe that there is no such thing as an electric vehicle. Currently, the second part of the world believes that the world will not change, but we will see.

As I see it now, oil prices have only one to go, up and battery technology to go - get better. When these two meet, it will be when the oil prices are on the way up and battery prices, accessibility and technology are far better. Who will win is anybodys guess.

I personally see an inflection point in the next couple of years as the Leaf and Volt enter the roads and companies like Tata and Mahindra (post Reva - a separate post on this) innovate from the other side.

So, for all those who are investing in an oil guzzler now - the world will change in two years. Personal mobility will happen e-vehicles while the oil guzzlers will be restricted to trucks and perhaps construction vehicles and the like.

2 comments:

Rangachari Anand said...

I agree with you on this completely. Now, the only other thing to make the picture perfect in the Indian context would be wide-spread adoption of solar energy. It would be great to use solar power to charge cars during the day time.

Amit said...

Have you seen this film: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0489037/ ?